Joe Biden’s legacy may have been stained had he not stepped aside. How will history view him now?

Will his decision to step aside seal Joe Biden’s legacy as US president?

Three weeks ago, Biden suffered a political catastrophe. Biden’s team had been surprised that Donald Trump had agreed to an early presidential debate in late June, and under rules that favoured Biden: no studio audience, just the two candidates, and muted microphones.

Biden urgently needed to change the trajectory of the race. He was at best tied with Trump nationally, but slipping in the key swing states that determined the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. He wanted to show that Trump was extreme, unhinged and unfit for office – a profound threat, in his eyes, to America’s democracy.

Trump wanted to prove that Biden was physically and mentally infirm and unable to fulfill a second term in office, much less his existing one.

Then Biden froze, lapsed, drifted and muttered. Trump was able to execute his game plan perfectly.

In the days that followed, Biden immediately began haemorrhaging support from Democrats more than worried – terrified – that Biden would be unable to defeat Trump, and could cause the Democrats to lose the House and Senate, as well. Democrats were peering into an abyss.

Until Sunday morning in the United States, the Biden team was consistently and fiercely pushing back against calls for him to drop out. They insisted he would not be dissuaded from his view that he was the strongest person to go after Trump and defeat him. Reports emerged that Biden was deeply hurt, angry and resentful of being challenged from within the party, and that he was not at all convinced by the polls showing him losing more key states than he won in 2020.

Biden saw no legitimacy in being denied the nomination when he won millions of votes in the Democratic primaries this year and virtually all the votes of the convention delegates. He vowed to resume campaigning after his bout of COVID.

It would take discussions with the most consequential leaders in the party to eventually persuade him to change course. These figures included former presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, and Jim Clyburn, a senior Black member of the House, whose endorsement of Biden helped seal his nomination for the presidency in 2020.

By Sunday morning, it was becoming clear to most everyone in the political world – including Trump and his campaign team – that Biden was terminal, and that he would surely lose if he did not leave the field.

Hours later, Biden stood aside. He finally got it. He said:

And while it has been my intention to seek re-election, I believe it is in the best interests of my party and the country to stand down and focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for the remainder of my term.

A courageous, statesmanlike decision

Had Biden not retreated, and had he been defeated by Trump in the November election, he would have been excoriated for being so self-centred, hubristic and arrogant to believe he was more important than the cause of defeating Trump.

He would have been adjudged as a failed one-term president because Trump would be able to enter office and destroy all the Biden programs and initiatives that came into existence during his presidency.

Indeed, Biden was regarded – and loved – by so many across the Democratic Party and the country because of what they saw in his half century of public service: his profound decency, his love for the country, his reverence for the military, and his determination to stop Trump and his assault on democracy.

Obama captured Biden’s legacy as president in his letter to the country on Sunday.

Since taking office, President Biden has displayed that character again and again. He helped end the pandemic, created millions of jobs, lowered the cost of prescription drugs, passed the first major piece of gun safety legislation in 30 years, made the biggest investment to address climate change in history, and fought to ensure the rights of working people to organise for fair wages and benefits.

Internationally, he restored America’s standing in the world, revitalised NATO, and mobilised the world to stand up against Russian aggression in Ukraine.

If Vice President Kamala Harris now earns the Democratic nomination and then defeats Trump, Biden’s decision to step back at a most critical moment in US history will be seen as both courageous and statesmanlike.

No presidential candidate from any major party has withdrawn from a campaign so late in the election cycle. What Biden did was truly unprecedented.

History will be the final judge

When it comes to assessing Biden’s legacy, there will be much analysis and reflection on issues not cited by Obama. There will be criticism of the inflation that was unleashed post-COVID, and the ensuing interest rate rises that resulted in profound insecurity for tens of millions of Americans facing cost-of-living pressures.

The border between the US and Mexico was allowed, for much too long, to get out of control, fuelling sentiment towards Trump’s most explosive issue: immigration and crime.

There was also one profound crisis that hurt Biden’s standing as an effective leader in foreign affairs and protecting America’s national security.

In early 2021, Biden announced the US would withdraw its troops by September of that year. The ensuing collapse of the Afghanistan government and the takeover of the country by the Taliban forced a chaotic evacuation of American personnel and Afghans who worked on behalf of the US.

The deaths of 13 US service members and horrific scenes at Kabul’s airport shook public confidence in Biden and his foreign policy mastery.

Biden’s approval slipped to 43% – his lowest mark since taking office – and it has declined steadily ever since.

This event was a precursor to a very challenging environment for Biden’s re-election chances in 2024. This was only compounded further by the persistent questions about his age and viability to run for a second term, particularly after last month’s debate performance.

Historians judge great presidents by whether their ideals, policies and programs endure. The verdict on whether Biden has been a great president will begin to be written the day after the November 5 election.