There’s a new 10-year plan for Australian schools. But will all states agree to sign on?

The Albanese government has released details of the next funding agreement for Australian schools.

The Better and Fairer Schools Agreement is a new ten-year agreement that will have significant power to shape what happens in schools until 2034.

It will replace the National School Reform Agreement from January 1 2025.

The agreement will require states and territories to adopt specific actions and measures to improve student outcomes. In return, they will get increased federal funding for schools.

How did we get here?

This new agreement follows a scathing review by the Productivity Commission in 2023, which found the current agreement had “done little” to lift student outcomes.

The government then commissioned its own review to advise ministers on reforms and targets to be tied to funding in the next agreement.

This year has been marked by extensive and highly politicised negotiations with state and territory governments, First Nations education representatives, and non-government peak education bodies.

This work has focused on two major questions:

So far, only Western Australia and the Northern Territory have reached agreements with the federal government over funding.

The release of the new agreement has been fast tracked to allow the NT government to sign this week before entering caretaker mode for its election. Western Australia is expected to officially sign in the coming weeks.

The remaining jurisdictions have yet to indicate their support for the new agreement. They have been demanding an extra 5% in funding from the federal government, but so far there is only 2.5% on the table.

Education Minister Jason Clare has issued a “sign-or-suffer” ultimatum. He says states must agree to the proposed 2.5% increase by the end of September or risk losing A$16 billion in extra funding from the Commonwealth.

What are the key reforms and targets?

The new agreement outlines multiple key reforms. These include:

• a Year 1 phonics check and early years of schooling numeracy check to identify students needing support

• evidence-based teaching and small-group or catch-up tutoring for students falling behind

• resources and supports to improve student wellbeing and mental health

• initiatives to attract and retain teachers and school leaders, especially in schools needing additional support

• improved access to evidence-based professional learning and curriculum resources for teachers and school leaders.

It also includes ambitious targets over the life of the agreement. These include:

• increasing the proportion of students leaving school with a Year 12 certificate to 83.8%, up from 76.3% in 2022. This would be the highest rate ever achieved

• increasing the proportion of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people (age 20–24) attaining a Year 12 or equivalent qualification to 96% by 2031, reflecting the Closing the Gap target

• reducing the proportion of students in the “needs additional support” NAPLAN category for reading and numeracy by 10% and increasing those in the “strong” and “exceeding” categories by 10% by 2030

• raising the student attendance rate to pre-COVID levels (91.4%), up from 88.6% in 2023.

What does it mean for school funding?

The new agreement outlines reforms and targets to improve student outcomes and increase funding transparency. But it does not specify exact funding amounts for states and territories or determine the schooling resource standard used by the federal government to calculate school funding.

The schooling resource standard is designed as a “needs-based” funding model. It involves a base rate amount of funding per student, with extra loadings to provide additional funding for students with disability, students from Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander backgrounds, students with socio-educational disadvantage, students with low English proficiency as well as smaller, regional and remote schools.

State and territory funding will be determined through individual bilateral agreements with the federal government. These agreements also set out the specific actions that systems will adopt to pursue the reforms and targets in the Better and Fairer Schools Agreement.

What are the challenges moving forward?

There are multiple challenges ahead to bring the new agreement to life and achieve its reform ambitions over the next decade. Five factors stand out.

1. A political fight

The next two months will see Clare negotiate with the remaining states and territories to finalise bilateral funding agreements. All signs suggest this could be a brutal political battle, given remaining state education ministers insist a 5% increase in federal spending is needed.

2. The ‘funding wars’

The new agreement is unlikely to end the “funding wars” that have plagued Australian schooling reform for the past two decades. Clare’s ambition is for all schools to reach “full funding” under the schooling resource standard by 2029.

However, the agreement leaves the window open for this date to be extended in bilateral agreements, meaning there is a chance that public schools in some states and territories might not achieve full funding until the 2030s. If schools do not have adequate resources, this will make it harder to achieve the proposed reforms.

3. A new Gonski?

The agreement includes a commitment to review the current schooling resource standard methodology (commonly known as “the Gonksi model”) by mid-2029. This is a reasonable step as the model was established more than a decade ago following the 2011 Gonski Review.

Given the intense and longstanding volatility of Australian school funding debates, a review of the schooling resource standard will be a major point of political contention and will no doubt reignite debates about Australia’s complex funding system.

4. A risk of new reporting burdens

The new agreement seeks to strengthen reporting and transparency requirements. This includes annual reports to the Commonwealth on progress relating to the agreement, a new public reporting dashboard, and requirements for states and territories to provide clearer information about how funding is being distributed to schools.

These are important reforms but if they are not navigated carefully, they risk adding new burdens to schools and systems, who already have significant administrative work linked to national reform initiatives.

5. The devil is in the enactment

While the new agreement establishes a national road map for schooling policy until 2034, the success of these reforms will primarily be determined by states and territories. Each jurisdiction will be responsible for executing and following through on the policy actions outlined in its bilateral agreement.

While some reforms, like the phonics and numeracy checks, will be easier to implement, the more ambitious targets, such as increasing Year 12 attainment rates, present major policy challenges.

Historically, Australian governments have struggled to meet such targets, indicating substantial efforts will be required across jurisdictions to achieve these goals.