3 reasons to fear humanity won’t reach net-zero emissions – and 4 reasons we might just do it
- Written by: Nick Rowley, Honorary Associate Professor, The Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Within hours of taking office last week, President Donald Trump made good on his pledges to wind back the United States’ climate action – including withdrawing the US from the Paris Agreement.
This political show comes barely a week after 2024 was revealed as the world’s hottest year and following the catastrophic Los Angeles fires. The fires directly killed 20 people; potentially many more will die from toxic smoke and other after-effects.
The science is clear: achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is humanity’s only hope of achieving some measure of climate security. It’s time to think deeply on our chances of getting there.
Here, I outline a few reasons for pessimism, and for hope.
Reasons for pessimism
1. The data doesn’t lie
The landmark Paris Agreement, signed by 196 nations in 2015, aimed to limit global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Achieving that requires reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century.
Yet nearly a decade after the agreement, global emissions continue to rise. The Global Carbon Budget estimates a record-high 37.4 billion tonnes of CO₂ was emitted last year.
And 2024 was not just the hottest year on record – it was the first year to exceed the 1.5°C temperature threshold.
It’s not too late to change trajectory. But sadly, the data show the bathtub is fast filling, and the tap is still running hard.
2. Renewable energy rollout is too slow
Renewable energy deployment is increasing and the price is falling. But it’s not happening fast enough.
According to the International Energy Agency, clean energy investment must more than double this decade if the net-zero goal is to be reached by 2050. In particular, clean energy investment in developing countries must increase significantly.
Richer nations – which are largely responsible for the stock of emissions in the atmosphere driving the climate problem – are failing to help developing countries make the clean energy shift. At the COP29 climate talks in Baku last year, developed nations agreed to give only US$300 billion (A$474 billion) a year in climate finance to developing countries by 2035. It is nowhere near enough.
3. The net-zero smokescreen
Net-zero emissions is not the same as zero emissions. It allows some industries to keep polluting, if equivalent emissions are removed from the atmosphere elsewhere to keep the balance at zero.
This means nations that are purportedly committed to the net-zero goal can continue with business as usual, or worse.
In 2023, for example, then-British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced 100 new oil and gas licences in the North Sea, saying it was “entirely consistent” with his government’s net-zero goal. The same logic has allowed Australia’s environment minister, Tanya Plibersek, to approve new coal mines.
Both decisions came from governments that have pledged commitment to reaching net-zero – yet both are clearly making the goal harder to achieve.
These are just a few of the reasons to feel pessimistic about getting to net-zero – there are many more.
Barriers exist to extracting the critical minerals needed in low-emissions technology. Differences in human relationships to nature means we will never reach full agreement on how to respond to environmental risk. And globally, there is rising mistrust in international agreements and institutions.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Here’s why.
Reasons for hope
1. Renewable energy is cheap
Renewable energy has become the cheapest form of new electricity in history. The technologies are now less expensive than coal and gas in most major countries.
The International Energy Agency projects global renewable capacity will increase by more than 5,520 gigawatts between 2024 and 2030. This is 2.6 times more than the deployment over the six years to 2023.
The growth in rooftop solar is expected to more than triple, as equipment costs decline and social acceptance increases.
2. Commitments to net-zero are many
Global support for the net-zero goal is significant. According to Net Zero Tracker, 147 of 198 countries have set a net-zero target. Some 1,176 of the 2,000 largest publicly traded companies by revenue have also adopted it.
Without seeing the plans, numbers, laws, regulations and investments required to achieve these ambitions, one should be sceptical – but not cynical.
3. Tech innovation and climate response are in lock-step
Twenty-five years ago, smartphones did not exist, email was new and we “surfed” a new thing called the worldwide web with a slow dial-up modem.
Similarly, our technologies will look very different 25 years from now – and many developments will ultimately help deliver the net-zero goal.
Smart electricity grids, for example, use digital technologies, sensors and software to precisely meet the demand of electricity users – making the system more efficient and reducing carbon emissions.
The European Union, United States and China are all investing vast sums to support their development.
Already, we can use smart meters to monitor electricity generation from our roofs to our cars and home batteries. This allows zero-emissions electricity to both be used and sold back to the grid.
Tech innovation is not confined to the electricity sector. As Australia’s Climate Change Authority has stated, technology offers pathways to reduce emissions across the economy – in transport, agriculture, industry and more.
4. Human talent and capacity
Many of humanity’s best minds are now focused on reducing climate risk.
Climate change mitigation is attracting remarkable professionals in roles unimaginable 25 years ago - from engineers developing breakthrough renewable technologies to financial experts designing green investment products, policy specialists crafting new regulations, and climate scientists refining our understanding of climate risk.
And among much of the public, global support for climate action is strong.
No time for despair
The fact that humans caused climate change is an enabling truth: we also have the capacity to make decisions to address the problem.
Our choices today will make a difference. It will be a bumpy road – but to achieve some measure of climate security, net-zero is a goal we must achieve.
Authors: Nick Rowley, Honorary Associate Professor, The Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
