Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.
The final Newspoll gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a Freshwater poll gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead, a DemosAU poll gave Labor a 52–48 lead and a Morgan poll gave Labor a 53–47 lead. Vote counting at the election is also covered.
The final Newspoll, conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1,270, gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the April 21–24 Newspoll. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up two), 8% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (steady).
Applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes would give Labor about a 53–47 lead. Newspoll is giving the Coalition a greater share of One Nation preferences than in 2022.
Here is the final poll graph. Labor is clearly ahead and will win Saturday’s election unless polls are overstating them by as much as they did in the 2019 election.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll was down one point to -10, with 52% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped a further four points to a new record low of -28. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 51–35.
Since the early March Newspoll (the last one before the election campaign began), Dutton has lost 14 points on net approval, while Albanese has gained two points.
Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the Newspoll data points and a trend line has been fitted.
A simple average of the four polls this week that have asked for leaders’ ratings (Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and Resolve) has Albanese at net -3.8 approval and Dutton at net -20.
By 57–43, voters thought they would be better off in the next three years under an Albanese Labor government than a Dutton Coalition government.
Labor takes 51.5–48.5 lead in final Freshwater poll
A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 2,055 (double the normal sample size), gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead by respondent preferences, a 1.3-point gain for Labor since the April 14–16 Freshwater poll.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady) and 18% for all Others (up one). One Nation were broken out for the first time and had 8%. By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by about 51–49.
Freshwater has been the most pro-Coalition of regular Australian pollsters, and its last poll had a near tie when other polls had Labor well ahead.
Albanese’s net approval was up seven points to -3, with 44% unfavourable and 41% favourable. Dutton’s net approval was down five points to -16. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 49–39 (46–41 previously).
Labor gained a point on cost of living and economic management to reduce the Coalition’s lead to one point and five points on these issues respectively.
The Coalition led by 55–45 with the 42% who had already voted (25% early and 17% by postal ballot). Labor led by 52–41 with those yet to vote with 7% undecided.
Two DemosAU final week polls
The two national DemosAU polls listed here were taken over a concurrent fieldwork period. The previous DemosAU poll, conducted April 22–23, had given Labor a 52–48 lead from primary votes of 31% Coalition, 29% Labor, 14% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 10% others.
A national DemosAU poll , conducted April 27–30 from a large sample of 4,100, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, from primary votes of 33% Coalition, 31% Labor, 12% Greens, 9% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots, 7% independents and 6% others. State and other breakdowns are provided in the report.
Albanese led Dutton by 46–34 as preferred PM. Party breakdowns of this question had Albanese leading by 71–10 with Greens voters, 57–20 with independent voters and 36–27 with other voters. Dutton only led by 43–21 with One Nation voters and 37–30 with Trumpet of Patriots voters. These breakdowns don’t imply a Coalition surge on preference flows.
A second national DemosAU poll for The Gazette, conducted April 27–29 from a sample of 1,974, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, Primary votes were 32% Coalition, 29% Labor, 12% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 11% others.
Labor retains 53–47 lead in final Morgan poll
The final national Morgan poll, conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1,368, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, unchanged from the April 21–27 Morgan poll.
Primary votes were 34.5% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 6.5% One Nation (down one), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (up 0.5), 3% teal independents (up one) and 7.5% for all Others (steady). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by an unchanged 54–46.
More from the Spectre poll
I’ve received the full Spectre poll that I wrote about on Thursday. Labor’s net favourability was net zero, the Liberals were at net -2, Albanese was net -6, Dutton was net -13, Pauline Hanson was net -8 and Greens leader Adam Bandt was net -12.
The most unpopular people in this poll were US President Donald Trump at net -47 and Elon Musk at net -45.
Vote counting for the election
Polls close at 6pm AEST Saturday in the eastern states, which have 122 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. Polls close at 6:30pm AEST in South Australia and the Northern Territory (12 combined seats), and in Western Australia at 8pm AEST (16 seats).
By 8pm AEST, I expect the large majority of votes cast on election day to be counted in the eastern states. But pre-poll votes and returned postal votes already account for 40% of enrolled voters, and the biggest day of pre-polling (Friday) is still to be added.
In many seats, we will need to wait until the pre-poll votes are counted before a result can be called. It’s unlikely the election will be called until a large proportion of the pre-poll votes have been counted. This is likely to take until late at night AEST.
Not all seats will be called on election night. In some seats, the electoral commission will have selected the incorrect candidates for its final two candidate count, and will need to re-do this count with the correct candidates.
Other seats will be close between the final two, and we will need to wait for late postals and absent votes to decide the winner. If postmarked by election day, postals have up to May 16 to arrive (13 days after the election).
I wrote about the Senate election on April 16. It will usually be clear on election night who has won the top four or five seats out of six in a state. But to resolve the final seats, all votes need to be data entered into a computer system, then a button is pressed to electronically distribute preferences. This is likely to take about four weeks after the election.
UK byelection and local elections
I covered Thursday’s United Kingdom parliamentary byelection and local government elections for The Poll Bludger. The far-right Reform gained the safe Labour Runcorn and Helsby seat, winning by just six votes. They are making massive gains from both the Conservatives and Labour in the local elections.
In final results from Monday’s Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats, three short of the 172 needed for a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one. Vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP and 1.3% Greens.
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
Read more https://theconversation.com/final-polls-give-labor-a-clear-lead-before-the-election-255724
