As Filipinos prepare to vote, ex-strongman Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest is dividing families – all the way to the president

It’s been two months since former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested and handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) to face potential prosecution for crimes against humanity.

Duterte’s arrest has angered his supporters and caused polarisation to worsen in the lead-up to important parliamentary elections on May 12.

The election could be a referendum on the current president, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whose approval rating fell to 25% in March after Duterte’s arrest. It had been 42% a month earlier.

Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, meanwhile, has seen her approval rating increase to 59%, despite the fact she was impeached by the House of Representatives earlier this year for threatening to assassinate Marcos.

Some of Marcos’ former allies are now drifting towards Sara Duterte, potentially setting her up for a successful run for the presidency herself in 2028.

Family feuding

Marcos is not only dealing with the resentment of some segments of the public, he’s also facing a challenge from his own sister, Imee Marcos, a senator.

Imee Marcos conducted several hearings in the Senate to probe into the procedures followed by the national police and other government agencies in implementing Duterte’s arrest warrant, which had been issued through Interpol.

Right from the start, she denounced Duterte’s surrender to the ICC as a violation of the Philippine constitution and the country’s sovereignty. She asserted the court did not have jurisdiction over the Philippines after it withdrew from the Rome Statute in 2019.

In a press conference on April 29, Imee Marcos announced a Senate committee is recommending the filing of criminal charges against the head of the Department of Justice and other officials who arrested and turned him over to the ICC. On May 7, the ombudsman asked these officials to respond to the Senate committee complaint within 10 days.

Imee Marcos has political motivations of her own for acting in this way. She is seeking another term herself and has been trailing in public opinion polls.

To make the political machinations even more complex, Sara Duterte has now endorsed Imee Marcos’ bid for re-election. Some of Duterte’s supporters, however, have been sceptical about Marcos’ motives in conducting the hearings.

Controlling the narrative

Though Duterte’s arrest has dominated the headlines in the Philippines, it’s unclear whether Marcos’ declining popularity as president is tied solely to this incident.

Many Filipinos supported Duterte’s arrest, according to one poll in March. And Marcos’ government has also been criticised for the state of the economy.

But at least one observer has pointed to the Duterte family’s effective use of Tiktok to control the narrative around his arrest, portraying it as a kidnapping. Sara Duterte has recently claimed her name is on the ICC prosecutor’s list of those who will be arrested next.

It is also important to note Duterte’s supporters have resorted to the dissemination of fake news and disinformation against the Marcos administration. His supporters have also aimed their attacks on the ICC pre-trial judges, as well as victims of the drugs war during Duterte’s time in office.

The 2028 presidential race

The outcome of the elections in the Philippines next week will no doubt have short- and medium-term implications for the country’s politics.

First, if all nine of the Senate candidates backed by the Marcos administration win, they would expand his bloc of supporters in the chamber. This bloc may then vote to convict Sara Duterte when her impeachment case moves to a Senate trial.

If she’s convicted, she would be banned from running for president in 2028. But it’s uncertain if two-thirds of senators would vote to convict – the threshold necessary for impeachment. Some pro-Marcos and independent senators may be wary of antagonising loyal Duterte supporters.

If Sara Duterte is acquitted, this would likely only boost her bid for the presidency.

The ICC’s pre-trial chamber will hold a hearing in September that will be watched closely by pro- and anti-Duterte forces in the Philippines. On May 8, the chamber rejected a petition filed by Duterte’s defence team to excuse two judges over alleged bias.

His loyal supporters will likely increase their attacks against the ICC, the victims of Duterte’s drugs war, and the Marcos administration through the use of fake news and disinformation as the trial progresses.

If Duterte is convicted by the court prior to the 2028 election, it will certainly be used as a campaign issue by both sides, too. And this will only further worsen polarisation in the Philippines.