Shock NSW Senate result as One Nation beats Labor to win final seat
- Written by Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
The button was pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the New South Wales Senate today. All analysts expected Labor to win the final seat, for a three Labor, two Coalition, one Green result. Instead, One Nation won the final seat, for a two Labor, two Coalition, one Green and one One Nation result. This is a One Nation gain from the Coalition.
Six of the 12 senators for each state and all four territory senators were up for election on May 3. Changes in state senate representation are measured against 2019, the last time these senators were up for election. State senators elected at this election will start their six-year terms on July 1.
Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%.
Final primary votes in NSW gave Labor 2.63 quotas, the Coalition 2.06, the Greens 0.78, One Nation 0.42, Legalise Cannabis 0.24, Trumpet of Patriots 0.17, the Libertarians 0.13 and Family First 0.11. One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.89 quotas to 0.87.
Labor was hurt by the Greens being well short of quota, and getting preferences from left sources that would otherwise have gone to Labor, while right-wing parties united behind One Nation. The Greens only crossed quota at the second last count, and their small surplus wasn’t enough for Labor to catch One Nation.
I covered Senate results from other states and territories earlier and this week.
In the later piece, I talked about the two-party count. This isn’t finished yet in NSW or Victoria, but one side of politics usually needs about 57% of the two-party vote in a state to win four of the six senators (four quotas). This is very difficult to achieve.
In Tasmania, Labor won the two-party count by over 63–37, but missed out on three senators owing to Jacqui Lambie. In South Australia, Labor won by over 59–41 and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Victoria, Labor leads by nearly 57–43, and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Western Australia and NSW, Labor won by less than 56–44 and the Senate was tied 3–3 between left and right.
Out of the 40 Senate seats that were up at this election, Labor won 16 (up three), the Coalition 13 (down five), the Greens six (steady), One Nation three (up two) and Lambie and David Pocock one each (both steady). The Coalition lost senators in all mainland states, with Labor gaining in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, and One Nation in NSW and WA.
The 36 state senators elected in 2022 won’t be up for election until 2028. For the whole Senate, Labor has 28 out of 76, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation four and there are six others. Labor will need either the Greens or the Coalition to reach the 39 votes needed for a Senate majority.
In 2022, the United Australia Party (UAP) won a seat in Victoria. During the last term, Lidia Thorpe defected from the Greens, Fatima Payman from Labor and Tammy Tyrrell from the Jacqui Lambie Network. The six others are these four, Pocock and Lambie.
Counting Thorpe, Payman and Pocock as left and the UAP as right, the left overall has a 42–32 Senate majority, with two others (Lambie and Tyrrell).
National Senate primaries and results by state
Nationally, Labor won 35.1% of the Senate vote (up 5.0% since 2022), the Coalition 29.9% (down 4.4%), the Greens 11.7% (down 0.9%), One Nation 5.7% (up 1.4%), Legalise Cannabis 3.5% (up 0.2%), Trumpet of Patriots 2.6% and Family First 1.5%.
Labor won 34.6% nationally in the House of Representatives, so their Senate vote was 0.5% higher than in the House. It’s likely the lack of a Teal option helped Labor in the Senate.
This table shows the senators elected in each state and territory in 2025, with the seat share and vote share at the bottom. Despite the losses in NSW and WA, Labor and the Greens are overrepresented in the Senate relative to vote share.
Others are greatly underrepresented, but this is because most other parties are either left or right-wing, and their preferences go to Labor, the Greens, the Coalition or One Nation rather than to more others.
For the combined left to lose control of the Senate in 2028, they would need to lose four seats. The only seat that looks vulnerable is the WA seat won by Payman for Labor in 2022. Even if the Coalition wins in 2028, the Senate is likely to be hostile to the Coalition.
At a double dissolution election, all senators are up for election at the same time. If the Coalition wins in 2028, a double dissolution would be an option to seek to change a hostile Senate.
Preference distributions for WA and Queensland
Final WA primary votes gave Labor 2.53 quotas, the Liberals 1.86, the Greens 0.90, One Nation 0.41, Legalise Cannabis 0.28, the Nationals 0.25 and Australian Christians 0.19.
One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.90 quotas to 0.86. When the Nationals were excluded, the Liberals got a large surplus. As in Victoria, Liberal preferences heavily favoured One Nation over Labor and Legalise Cannabis.
But Legalise Cannabis preferences were not as good for Labor as in Victoria, with Labor winning these preferences by 13 points over One Nation, rather than 24 points in Victoria.
Final Queensland primary votes gave the Liberal National Party 2.17 quotas, Labor 2.13, the Greens 0.73, One Nation 0.50, Gerard Rennick 0.33, Trumpet of Patriots 0.26 and Legalise Cannabis 0.25.
Both the Greens and One Nation easily reached a quota on the distribution of preferences, with Rennick finishing far behind on 0.55 quotas.
Authors: Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
