Modern Australian
Men's Weekly

.

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right

  • Written by Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW

Official figures released Wednesday show the Australian economy growing at the slowest pace since the financial crisis.

GDP growth was only 0.5% for the June quarter, meaning that in the past year output grew by a feeble 1.4%.

The figures weren’t a surprise, but they do contain a message about what can go wrong.

Australia has enjoyed 28 years of uninterrupted economic growth, in part due to good management, in part due to good luck, and in part due to happy accidents of timing.

Good management

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right Australian prime minister Bob Hawke, honoured at Parliament House. Lukas Coch/AAP

Credit has to be paid to the economic reforms of the Hawke-Keating era. Labor doesn’t talk about that legacy much these days, but it was a remarkable period of transformation.

From floating the Australian dollar and financial deregulation to the accord with trade unions, tariff reductions, and privatisation of state-owned enterprises, Hawke and Keating opened Australia to the world, and the world to Australia.

Without those reforms the Australian economy would look more like those of Italy, Spain, or Portugal.

And although John Howard was no pushover as a politician, he deserves credit for voting for economic reforms he believed in, even if Labor got the credit for implementing them.

Read more: Hawke was our larrikin, but also our reformer

It is worth remembering that there was a time, not so long ago, when politicians put country before party.

Good luck

We’ve also had some pretty good luck as a country. The most obvious piece of luck has been the economic awakening of China.

To have a billion people on our doorstep rapidly and radically transitioning from subsistence farming to sophisticated manufacturing and commerce, hungry for natural resources, sure helped.

Perhaps less obvious has been the rising importance of globally relevant cities around the world.

In his wonderful book, The Triumph of the City, Harvard economics professor Ed Glaeser chronicles how, as he puts it, “cities magnify humanity’s strengths”.

Modern cities, thanks in part to information technology, spur innovation like never before. They bring talent together, serve as a cradle for entrepreneurship, and provide a vehicle for socioeconomic mobility.

Australia, as a highly urbanised country with two globally relevant cities in Sydney and Melbourne, as well as several other very important cities, has benefited from the triumph of the city more than most countries.

Great timing

But perhaps the greatest piece of good luck we’ve had was timing.

We now know that we live in a low-growth, low-inflation world, known as a secular-stagnation world. Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says we might have been in one for many years but failed to notice.

In Summers’s telling, secular stagnation was masked in the United States by a massive housing bubble. In Australia it was masked by a housing bubble and a once-in-a century mining boom.

But more to the point, as housing and mining waxed and waned – as these things tend to do – one always seemed to be doing well just as the other was struggling, as the following chart shows:

Helpfully out of sync. Growth in mining output and property prices

Vital Signs. Sure, economic growth is low, but think about what's gone right Source: ABS So, not only have we had a “China boom”, we’ve also had a “China hedge”: a source of economic growth not fully synced with, and at times offsetting, housing booms and busts. What’s next? In eulogising his brother Robert, Edward Kennedy quoted from a speech his brother gave in South Africa in 1966, in which he said: Our future may lie beyond our vision, but it is not completely beyond our control. It is the shaping impulse of America that neither fate nor nature nor the irresistible tides of history, but the work of our own hands, matched to reason and principle, that will determine our destiny. There is pride in that, even arrogance, but there is also experience and truth. In any event, it is the only way we can live. The same might be said of Australia. We want to believe our national destiny will be shaped by good work, rather than good luck. For that to be the case, we will need to have some hard discussions about the what government can and should do in the new low growth, low inflation secular-stagnation world. This is Richard Holden’s 200th article for The Conversation.

Authors: Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW

Read more http://theconversation.com/vital-signs-sure-economic-growth-is-low-but-think-about-whats-gone-right-122973

Why Ugly Websites Sometimes Outperform Beautiful Ones

In the digital age, we're constantly told that first impressions matter, and nowhere does this seem more apparent than in web design. However, a cur...

TPD Claims & Super: What Does It All Mean?

Many Australians hear the term "TPD" in relation to their superannuation and feel completely lost. If you're scratching your head, wondering what it...

What Does Breastfeeding Feel Like? A Guide for New Moms

Frequently, numerous new mothers wonder, "What does breastfeeding feel like?" The feeling is different for each individual - a few describe it as a ...

Best Nail Care Routine for Frequent Nail Polish Wearers

For many people, nail polish is more than a beauty statement – it’s part of their everyday routine. Whether you love bold colours, chic neutrals...

Reinventing Research: How E-Libraries Are Changing Education Forever

A New Chapter for Learning For centuries libraries stood as temples of knowledge filled with shelves that smelled of dust and paper. Today the same...

Psychologists Explore Gestalt Vs Schema Therapy for PTSD Treatment

Recent research has revealed that in 2022, 1 in 9 Australians experienced post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). For some, this can significantly im...

Beyond Sunscreen: Building a Sun-Smart Culture in Modern Australia

Australia’s sun-soaked lifestyle is a defining part of its national identity. From beaches and sports fields to weekend barbecues and bushwalks, t...

What is Power BI & Why Should Your Business Use It?

In today's data-driven world, businesses are constantly searching for ways to gain a competitive edge. One tool that has emerged as a game-changer i...

From Service to Strength: How Aussie Veterans Are Rebuilding Their Lives with Everyday Support

Life after military service can bring new challenges. From physical limitations to mental health hurdles, many Australian veterans find everyday hou...

The Best Times of Year to Buy a Caravan

If you're shopping for caravans for sale, timing matters almost as much as the layout and features you desire. The calendar shapes price, stock and ...

The Growing Demand for Smart Living Through Home Automation

Technology has reshaped how we communicate, work, and travel—but now, it’s also changing the way we live at home. The rise of home automation i...

Beyond Clicks and Likes: Why Many Small Businesses in Australia Still Aren’t Leveraging Digital Marketing in 2025

Introduction In 2025, online marketing has become the driving force behind business growth for companies of all sizes. Yet, despite its proven effect...

Lighting Shop Perth: Your Comprehensive Guide to Choosing the Right Lighting Solutions

Lighting is a fundamental element in defining the ambiance, functionality, and aesthetic appeal of any space. Whether you are renovating your home, ...

Private Booze Cruisers – The New Must-Have Toy for Cashed Up Millennials

Did you hear that your 30s are the new 20s? We’ve finally rocked up that adult money and now it’s time to play with it. I was going for a walk ...

Grinding & Jaw Soreness: Signs You Might Need Night Guards and How We Protect Enamel

Waking with a tight jaw, tender muscles, or a dull temple headache is more than a bad night’s sleep. Many Australians grind or clench their teeth ...

Circular Interior Design: Furnishing with Salvaged & Reclaimed Materials

Circular interior design is gradually making its way from niche circles into mainstream Australian homes. At its core, this approach revolves around...

Invisible Braces vs Traditional Braces: Which Is Best for Adults?

Straightening teeth as an adult is common in Australia, and the options are better than ever. The two main choices are clear aligners, also called i...

Smoking, Vaping, and Healing: How Nicotine Affects Sockets and What you can do About it

Nicotine and oral surgery are a poor mix. After an wisdom teeth removal in Sydney, your body needs a stable blood clot and steady blood flow to rebu...