Modern Australian
Men's Weekly

.

Has Australia really avoided 14,000 coronavirus deaths?

  • Written by Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics, University of South Australia
Has Australia really avoided 14,000 coronavirus deaths?

Australia’s chief medical officer Brendan Murphy told a senate inquiry earlier this week our COVID-19 public health response had avoided about 14,000 deaths.

This is in contrast to his deputy Paul Kelly, who estimated on March 16 that Australia might have 50,000-150,000 deaths, depending on the percentage of Australians infected.

Then an article by Tony Blakely from the University of Melbourne and Nick Wilson from the University of Otago on March 23 used modelling from Imperial College, London, to estimate that even with “flattening the curve”, there would likely be 25,000-55,000 deaths.

So, it’s reasonable to ask which of these estimates is correct.

It turns out this is an easy question to ask, but a complicated one to answer.

Unfortunately, just about every statistic quoted about COVID-19 either in Australia or elsewhere is either an educated guess, based on modelling, or is so full of caveats it’s difficult to interpret.

Read more: Scientific modelling is steering our response to coronavirus. But what is scientific modelling?

For example, even the simplest statistic, the number of new daily cases of COVID-19, depends on the diagnostic accuracy of the tests, and the number of tests undertaken.

As for COVID-19 deaths, some countries include a death in the official total if it is even likely the person died from the disease; others have not included deaths in aged care homes in their counts.

So, comparing outcomes in different countries is fraught with difficulty due to different ways of defining and calculating these statistics.

Where did the 14,000 number come from?

Murphy’s estimate of 14,000 avoided deaths came from comparing Australia to the UK. The UK has a similar health system but has had more than 268,619 confirmed cases of COVID-19, with more than 37,542 deaths.

But I am not sure this is a fair comparison.

The UK National Health Service has been struggling well before the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly due to an ageing population, difficulty in recruiting staff, higher costs, and population pressure. And even with its higher number of deaths, the UK has still not closed its borders.

Read more: 6 countries, 6 curves: how nations that moved fast against COVID-19 avoided disaster

A much better comparison is with Sweden, which has a good health system, but took a very different approach to Australia.

Sweden did not put into place any formal social distancing measures. Instead of lockdowns, it encouraged citizens to use common sense, work from home if possible, and not gather in crowds of more than 50 people.

Primary schools are open, as are bars and restaurants and businesses. As a result, Sweden has had more than 35,000 cases and 4,220 deaths in a population of just over 10 million.

This is much higher than neighbouring Scandinavian countries, and in fact tops Europe on a per capita basis.

If we want to compare death rates between Australia and Sweden, we need to calculate the cause-specific mortality rate. The cause-specific mortality rate for COVID-19 is the number of deaths from COVID-19 divided by the population. For Sweden, the cause-specific mortality rate for COVID-19 is 4,220 divided by 10,343,403, which is equal to 40.8 per 100,000 population.

If we now apply this to the Australian population of 25,700,995, we arrive at 10,486 expected deaths from COVID-19, assuming we had taken the same approach as Sweden.

Take away the 103 deaths we actually have, and we have saved 10,383 COVID-19 deaths as a result of our strategy.

So, our chief medical officer wasn’t really too far off the mark.

So what was behind those earlier figures?

The earlier predictions were based on the premise that a significant proportion of our population would be infected, which simply has not happened.

In fact, with just 7,139 cases, only about 0.03% of our population has been diagnosed with COVID-19, compared with the 30-60% predicted in the previous estimates.

But it’s not quite so simple

Unfortunately, the story doesn’t end there. No matter which way we calculate these “avoided deaths”, we also need to factor in additional likely deaths from our public health response.

The impact of our business closures and massive job losses, as well as enforced isolation, might well have increased our rates of suicide and mental illness.

At the same time, many cancer patients and those with other chronic conditions have been staying away from medical check-ups and appointments.

Read more: Even in a pandemic, continue with routine health care and don't ignore a medical emergency

These might lead to more deaths. However, I doubt these people’s death certificates will mention COVID-19.

On the plus side, fewer cars on the roads will almost certainly lead to fewer motor vehicle accidents, and because of social distancing, we are already seeing a huge drop in the number of Australians diagnosed with influenza.

Read more: Coronavirus modelling shows the government is getting the balance right – if our aim is to flatten the curve

Does it really matter if estimates of deaths saved are a bit out? Well, it probably does to economists. They can cost the value of someone’s life, add up the value of all the lives saved, and then demonstrate we have actually saved money from the billions spent. The government would obviously like the number of deaths saved to be as high as possible to justify its strategies and expenditure.

But for the ordinary person, probably not. For us, we are simply relieved our loved ones have been spared.

Authors: Adrian Esterman, Professor of Biostatistics, University of South Australia

Read more https://theconversation.com/has-australia-really-avoided-14-000-coronavirus-deaths-139465

7 Common Air Conditioner Issues in Melbourne – And How to Fix Them

Image by freepik Living in Melbourne, we all know how unpredictable the weather can be. One moment it’s cold and windy, the next it’s a scorchin...

Powering Palm QLD with Reliable Electrical Solutions

Image by pvproductions on Freepik When it comes to finding a trustworthy electrician Palm QLD locals can count on, the team at East Coast Sparkies s...

The Smart Way to Grow Online: SEO Management Sydney Businesses Can Rely On

If you’re a Sydney-based business owner, you already know the digital space is crowded. But with the right strategy, you don’t need to shout the...

What Your Car Says About You: The Personality Behind the Vehicle

You can tell a lot about someone by the car they drive—or at least, that’s what people think. True Blue Mobile Mechanics reckon the car says a l...

The Confidence Curve: Why Boudoir Photography Is the Empowerment Trend You Didn’t Know You Needed

Boudoir photography has been quietly taking over social feeds, Pinterest boards, and personal milestones—and for good reason. It’s not just abou...

Understanding Level 2 Electricians: Why Sydney Residents Need Licenced Experts for Complex Electrical Work

When it comes to electrical work around the home or business, not all electricians are created equal. In Sydney, particularly when you're dealing wi...

Retirement Anchored in Model Boat Building for Waterford’s Doug Unsold

WATERFORD — When Doug Unsold sees his ship come in, it’s usually one he’s crafted with his own hands. The 67-year-old retiree from Waterford ...

The Science Behind Alarm Clocks and Your Circadian Rhythm

Waking up on time isn’t just about setting an alarm—it’s about working with your body, not against it. At the heart of every restful night and...

How to Use Plants to Create a Calming Atmosphere in Your Home

In today’s fast-paced world, cultivating a calm, soothing environment at home has never been more important. Whether you live in a busy urban apar...

How Maths Tutoring Can Help Students Master Maths

Mathematics can be a daunting subject for many students, often causing stress and frustration. However, maths tutoring has proven to be an effective...

Refurbished iPads Are Better Than New Ones (Here's Why)

Image by rawpixel.com on Freepik Apple's refurbished iPad program has quietly become one of the best deals in tech. While everyone obsesses over the ...

Your Guide to Finding the Right GP: What Perth City Doctors Offer Today

Choosing a General Practitioner (GP) is one of the most important health decisions you’ll make. Luckily, Perth’s vibrant CBD now hosts a new ge...

Why Every Mining Operation Needs a Robust Safety Management System

Mining is one of the backbones of the Australian economy, particularly in Western Australia. Back in 2019-20, mining contributed 10.4% of Australia...

Australian Classic Literature Enjoys Resurgence

Welcome back to the good old days of storytelling! As the modern world becomes increasingly more demanding, returning to childhood favourites offers...

How to Choose the Right Lawyers in Sydney for Your Situation

When faced with a legal issue, selecting the right legal representation can make all the difference. Whether you're dealing with a personal injury, ...

Building a Governance Model for Headless Content Management at Scale

Image by pch.vector on Freepik There's never been a better time to implement a headless content management system (CMS) to gain the flexibility and ...

Understanding Trade Insurance: Essential Protection for Businesses

Image by Drazen Zigic on Freepik In the current economic environment, trade insurance is an important element for companies trading both locally an...

Choosing the Right Timber for External Cladding

Timber cladding is one of those finishes that pulls double duty: it makes a building look warm and welcoming, and it quietly shields the frame from ...