How to improve the migration system for the good of temporary migrants – and Australia

The biggest review of Australia’s migration system in decades is due to be delivered to the federal government.

Commissioned by the Albanese government last September, its task is to identify reforms that will increase economic productivity, address challenges such as an ageing population, and make Australia a more desirable destination for highly skilled migrants.

But perhaps its thorniest job is how to provide temporary migrants with clear pathways to permanent residency and citizenship. This won’t be easy, given how much the number of temporary migrants in Australia now outstrips the permanent visas on offer.

It’s impossible to run an uncapped temporary migration program with a capped permanent program and offer all long-term temporary visa holders a road to permanent residency.

Something has to give.

Simple arithmetic: demand exceeds supply

About 1.9 million people – 7% of the population – are living in Australia on temporary visas with work rights.

About 680,000 are New Zealanders, who can get a visa automatically as part of a reciprocal agreement between Australia and New Zealand. The other 1.2 million migrants comprise international students, temporary skilled workers and working holiday-makers, among others. There is no cap on the number of these temporary visas granted. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government was issuing about half a million each year.

This is far in excess of the cap on permanent visas offered. In 2019, the Morrison government reduced the cap from 190,000 to 160,000 places a year. The Albanese government raised it to 195,000 for the 2022-23 financial year. It remains to be seen what will happen in future years. The queue is getting longer Not all temporary visa-holders want to stay in Australia, but many do. Most migrants are already in Australia on a temporary visa when they receive their permanent visa. But with a greater number of temporary residents vying for permanent residency, the wait times are rising, and migrants’ prospects of success are declining. About 42% of migrants granted a temporary skilled visa in 2008 got a permanent visa within four years. Of those who arrived in 2014, just 36% secured permanent residency within four years. The decline was worse for those on student visas. About 25% of international students who arrived in Australia in 2007 had become permanent residents six years later. For those who arrived in 2012, just 12% were permanent residents six years later.