Hugh White on what the next PM should tell Trump and defending Australia – without the US

The Trump ascendancy has forced international economic issues and the future strategic outlook onto the Australian election agenda, even if they are at the margins.

This campaign – while dominated by domestic issues, notably the cost of living – is being conducted against the background of an extraordinarily volatile external situation, with major implications for Australia’s future.

To discuss these issues, we were joined on the podcast by Hugh White, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University. White is one of Australia’s foremost thinkers on defence policy, China and the region. His long career includes serving as an adviser to then federal defence minister Kim Beazley.

White regards US President Donald Trump as a “revolutionary figure”:

I think Trump is a genuinely revolutionary character, and not just his impact on American domestic politics and economics, I also think he has a huge impact on global strategic affairs. And the reason for that is that he does have a fundamentally different view of America’s place in the world than that of what we might call a Washington establishment.

Donald Trump is really a kind of an old-fashioned isolationist. That is, he believes America’s strategic focus should be on the Western Hemisphere […] For example, in Ukraine he’s happy to see Russia assert itself as a great power in Eastern Europe. In Asia, I think, despite his reputation as a China hawk on economic issues, he doesn’t have any problem with China asserting itself as a great power in East Asia. He’s for these other great powers to dominate their backyards, just the way he wants America to dominate its backyard in the Western Hemisphere.

Yet White doesn’t believe either Labor or the Coalition is taking defence seriously in this election.

It’s not being treated as a real issue in the campaign, and that’s because both sides have determined that it won’t, and what underpins that is the absolutely rock-solid bipartisanship between the two of them on every significant issue. And I think that’s a very serious problem for Australia because at a time when our strategic circumstances are changing dramatically […] neither side has any inclination to have a serious conversation about what that means, why it’s happening, what we should be doing about it,

A lot of the blame for that lies with the Labor Party, because it seems to me Labor’s political approach to the whole question of foreign affairs and defence for a very long time now has focused on minimising differences with the Coalition.

While White agrees Australia needs new submarines, and quickly, he doesn’t think they should be nuclear-powered, as promised under AUKUS. He thinks we should leave AUKUS.

We should have started building replacements for the [Collins-class submarine] around about 2010 or 2012. So we’re well over a decade late and I do think there’s a real risk that we’re going to lose our submarine capability altogether. But the way to solve that is not to push ahead spending billions and billions of dollars on a project which, even if it works, delivers the submarines we don’t need, and which is very unlikely to deliver any submarines at all.

We’re past looking for a perfect submarine. We just need to get any submarine at all so we can keep some capability running and then once we have that running, we need to have a really focused programme. We need ministers to really tell Defence what to do, focus programmes to develop a follow on to the Collins-class design, because that’s the design we already know best in the world and to start building a new class of evolved Collins.

After the May 3 election, when the next prime minister meets the US president to talk trade, defence and more, what should Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton tell Trump? White says:

Trump is very hard to handle. I don’t think there’s any magic formula that an Australian prime minister can utter, which makes Trump into either a more acceptable, economic partner for Australia or a more reliable strategic partner for Australia, because the forces that are driving America out of Asia are much bigger than Donald Trump.

The most important thing an Australian political leader could say to Trump when he first meets him is, look, we understand where you’re coming from. We are happy to take responsibility for our own security. We don’t expect you to stay engaged in Asia to look after us in future. What we want you to do is to help us manage that transition as best we can and we’re prepared to pay for what we get.